Gary Parrish

There's obviously been a lot of BCS talk this week, and I got a few emails in response to my comment in the Monday Look Back about how if college basketball relied on a computer system (specifically the RPI) to produce participants in a national title game we would've been treated to Tennessee vs. North Carolina last season because those two schools finished the regular season first and second in the RPI.

Curious, I took it a step further.

I went back and looked at the past 10 RPI calculations and past 10 AP polls before the NCAA tournament, and what I found was that the actual national champion would've been invited to the title game just once in the past 10 seasons if we relied on the RPI, and just three times in the past 10 seasons if we relied on the AP poll. In other words, though those measuring devices might help identify the supposed best teams heading into the NCAA tournament, they haven't been good indicators of who will eventually be crowned the national champion. And if you translate that to football, then it's fair to assume the record books would look very different under a playoff system, because basketball shows that the teams ranked first and second in the computer formula or human poll usually don't survive the playoff.

Anyway, see for yourself ...

2008: No. 1 in the RPI (Tennessee) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (North Carolina)

2008: No. 1 in the AP poll (North Carolina) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Memphis)

• Actual champion: Kansas

2007: No. 1 in the RPI (Ohio State) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (North Carolina)

2007: No. 1 in the AP poll (Ohio State) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Kansas)

• Actual champion: Florida

2006: No. 1 in the RPI (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Villanova)

2006: No. 1 in the AP poll (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Connecticut)

• Actual champion: Florida

2005: No. 1 in the RPI (Kansas) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Illinois)

2005: No. 1 in the AP poll (Illinois) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (North Carolina)

• Actual champion: North Carolina

2004: No. 1 in the RPI (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Kentucky)

2004: No. 1 in the AP poll (Stanford) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Kentucky)

• Actual champion: Connecticut

2003: No. 1 in the RPI (Kentucky) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Arizona)

2003: No. 1 in the AP poll (Kentucky) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Arizona)

• Actual champion: Syracuse

2002: No. 1 in the RPI (Kansas) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Cincinnati)

2002: No. 1 in the AP poll (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Kansas)

• Actual champion: Maryland

2001: No. 1 in the RPI (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Stanford)

2001: No. 1 in the AP poll (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Stanford)

• Actual champion: Duke

2000: No. 1 in the RPI (Cincinnati) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Duke)

2000: No. 1 in the AP poll (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Michigan State)

• Actual champion: Michigan State

1999: No. 1 in the RPI (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the RPI (Michigan State)

1999: No. 1 in the AP poll (Duke) vs. No. 2 in the AP poll (Michigan State)

• Actual champion: Connecticut

SAN ANTONIO -- Four great teams couldn't even give us one great game.

Seriously?

Chalk me up as disappointed.

But there is no denying how impressive Kansas and Memphis were while recording victories here Saturday. The Jayhawks jumped to a 40-12 lead and never trailed in their 84-66 victory over North Carolina. That came after Memphis overwhelmed UCLA in a 78-63 win that provided John Calipari with an opportunity to take a shot at one of his biggest critics, Bill Plaschke.

Plachke wrote a column for Saturday morning's Los Angeles Times that described the UCLA-Memphis game as a coaching mismatch. He basically wrote that Howland is great and Calipari is not while explaining how though Memphis was favored by 2.5 points UCLA was actually favored by "one coach."

Naturally, somebody asked Calipari about this after Memphis blew past UCLA.

Here's the exchange ...

Reporter: There was a column in the Los Angeles Times today that said this was a coaching mismatch ....

Calipari: I don't think Ben is that bad . I respect Ben and think he's a heckuva coach.

Classic, right?

Calipari provided a little joke and allowed the moment to pass without many words, instead choosing to let the play of his players deliver any message. And how about the play of his players?

"Memphis has obviously played better than anybody in this tournament so far," said Kansas coach Bill Self. "But we're going to try to change that Monday."

If you're wondering -- and I know you are -- Vegas has already posted a line on Monday's title game.

Kansas opened as a 1-point favorite over Memphis.

So this is essentially an even matchup.

Four No. 1 seeds.

Four talented rosters.

Four accomplished coaches.

Man, is this gonna be fun or what?

Now I know some don't like it, having all four top seeds heading to San Antonio. They swear it's predictable (even though it had never happened before) and complain that it eliminates the Cinderella factor. My view: Screw Cinderella! She usually gets exposed in the Final Four anyway. I mean, as nice as that George Mason story was two years ago we all knew the Patriots had no shot to win the national title; it just wasn't gonna happen. So I'm pleased this NCAA tournament produced four legitimate powers, any of whom can reasonably expect to cut nets next Monday night.

Memphis opened as a 1-point favorite over UCLA.

North Carolina opened as a 3-point favorite over Kansas.

That's an indication these games are expected to be tight. And though I've never claimed to be a historian, I can't recall another year when we had four teams so good that there was no way to make a dumb prediction about how things might unfold. Seriously, is there any combination of Final Four winners that could be mocked?

Taking Memphis and North Carolina to advance is reasonable.

But so is taking UCLA and Kansas.

Or UCLA and North Carolina.

Or Memphis and Kansas.

And regardless of what happens in Saturday's semifinals, we're gonna have a Monday title game featuring a pair of worthy championship contenders. So buckle in and get ready because this should be great. The Road to the Final Four only has four cars remaining -- high-powered luxury vehicles, every last one of them

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Regardless of what happens in Sunday's Elite Eight games the Final Four will feature three coaches who are veterans of the event and one first-timer.

Already in are UCLA's Ben Howland (for the third time) and North Carolina's Roy Williams (for the sixth time). Joining them first will be either Memphis' John Calipari (who took UMass in 1996) and Texas' Rick Barnes (who took Texas in 2003). Then either Kansas' Bill Self or Davidson's Bob McKillop will complete the field. Neither of those have ever made the Final Four.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- If the four favorites win in the Elite Eight it'll be the first time all four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four.

For what it's worth, Las Vegas thinks it's going to happen.

No. 1 UCLA is a 6.5-point favorite over No. 3 Xavier.

No. 1 North Carolina is a 6-point favorite over No. 3 Louisville.

No. 1 Memphis is a 3-point favorite over No. 2 Texas.

No. 1 Kansas is a 9.5-point favorite over No. 10 Davidson.

So oddsmakers either love Kansas (which is reasonable) or they still aren't impressed with Davidson (which is unreasonable). Regardless, whatever transpires in Detroit will be a fabulous story given how there are only two options -- one that includes Bill Self making his first Final Four and another that has Davidson pulling a George Mason.

CHARLOTTE -- My pal Andy Demetra is always researching and looking at numbers. While doing so this week he discovered something interesting related to North Carolina.

As you probably know, the Tar Heels scored 113 points in a first-round win against Saint Mary's and 108 in a second-round win against Arkansas. Sounds great, right? But from a historical standpoint this does not ensure future dominance considering that since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 none of the five other teams that have scored 100 in back-to-back NCAA tournament games have gone on to win the national title.

Here's the list ...

1987: North Carolina (lost in the Elite Eight)
1988: Oklahoma (lost in the title game)
1989: Virginia (lost in the Elite Eight)
1990: Loyola Marymount (lost in the Elite Eight)
1993: Kentucky (lost in the Final Four)

The last team to actually score 100 points in back-to-back NCAA tournament games and win the national title was the 1965 version of the UCLA Bruins, according to Andy. Either way, don't expect UNC to score 100 against Washington State in the Sweet 16. The most points the Cougars have allowed to anybody this season is 81 to UCLA on Jan. 12.

CHARLOTTE -- I was flipping through some notes on the flight to Charlotte this afternoon and found something kinda interesting. It's that 23 of the 25 teams in the preseason Associated Press poll ultimately made the NCAA tournament, an impressive number given all the variables that can potentially change things from November to March.

The top four teams in that poll were North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis and Kansas.

Those are also the top four seeds in this NCAA tournament.

The only schools in the preseason Top 25 that didn't make the field were No. 21 North Carolina State and No. 24 Southern Illinois. Again, that's an amazing example of accuracy considering how last season there were five teams ranked in the AP preseason Top 25 that did not make the NCAA tournament -- namely No. 5 LSU, No. 11 Alabama, No. 17 Washington, No. 18 Connecticut and No. 20 Syracuse.

If you're wondering, 10 of the 16 teams in this Sweet 16 were ranked in the preseason.

The omissions were Villanova, Wisconsin, Xavier, Davidson, Western Kentucky and West Virginia.

The only preseason Top 10 schools that did not make the Sweet 16 were No. 5 Georgetown and No. 9 Indiana.

The first weekend seems to have changed what the oddsmakers are thinking.

According to Bodog, UCLA and North Carolina are now co-favorites to win the national title. Both are currently at 3-to-1, followed by Kansas (7-to-2), Louisville (4-to-1), Memphis (6-to-1) and Texas (10-to-1). What stands out from that list is that the oddsmakers saw the same thing I saw this past weekend in Birmingham, which is that Louisville is playing at a high level -- so high that the Cards are now considered the fourth most-likely team to win this NCAA Tournament despite being the No. 3 seed in the East Region. If you're wondering, they also opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Tennessee in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup in Charlotte.

The biggest Sweet 16 spread?

That's UCLA minus-13 over Western Kentucky.

The smallest Sweet 16 spread?

That's West Virginia minus-1 over Xavier.

And how many points will Stephen Curry have Friday against Wisconsin?

The over-under is 27.5.

And my instincts tell me I should tell you to take the under, particularly because Wisconsin just held Michael Beasley to 23 points. But my instincts have been totally wrong about all things related to Davidson. So if you're betting against Curry, you're doing so at your own risk.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Sunday was tame, relatively speaking.

Just one of the eight games played resulted in an upset.

And I bet you can guess which team got upset.

Anyway, the Sweet 16 is now set.

Here's how it looks by league.

Pac-10: Three representatives (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State)
Big East:  Three representatives (Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova)
Big 12: Two representatives (Kansas, Texas)
Big Ten: Two representatives (Wisconsin, Michigan State)
SEC: One representative (Tennessee)
ACC: One representative (North Carolina)
C-USA: One representative (Memphis)
A-10: One representative (Xavier)
Southern: One representative (Davidson)
Sun Belt: One representative (Western Kentucky)

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Donald Sloan is the Texas A&M player who took the last shot against UCLA.

Some people believe he was fouled on the play.

And pictures seem to back that opinion.

But I'll let you be the judge.

Click this link and look.

Discuss below.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Yeah, I'll stick with UCLA as my pick to win the national championship.

Wow.

That was some finish, huh?

And though I know many will look at the Bruins' 51-49 too-close-for-comfort win over Texas A&M and use it as evidence that this team isn't playing like a national title contender, I'll go the other way and tell you that what transpired Saturday night actually provided further evidence that this team is built to win a national title -- the way it defended like crazy, the way it battled back from a deficit, the way it had bigtime playmakers making bigtime plays down the stretch.

I mean, how many teams have clutch playmakers as good as Kevin Love and Darren Collison? Those two combined to make one winning play after another in the final minutes -- Love with fall-aways and Collison with driving layups. Poor Texas A&M seemed helpless late, incapable of stopping either future first-round draft pick. So now Love and Collison and the rest of the Bruins will head to Phoenix, where they'll meet Western Kentucky or San Diego in the semfinals of the West Region.

Also in the Sweet 16: Washington State and Stanford.

That's another storyline from Saturday.

The Cougars dominated Notre Dame while Stanford edged Marquette, meaning three Pac-10 schools are in the Sweet 16. Only the Big East can top that number, but for that to happen it'll take Georgetown beating Davidson (likely), Villanova beating Siena (probable) and Louisville beating Oklahoma (probable) on Sunday. West Virginia has already advanced thanks to Saturday's victory over Duke.

Sticking with that theme, here's a look at how the Sweet 16 will look by league assuming all of Sunday's favorites advance ....

(Editor's note: It's stupid to think all the favorites will advance, so keep that in mind)

Big East: Four (West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville, VIllanova)
Pac-10: Three (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State)
Big 12: Two (Kansas, Texas)
Big Ten: Two (Wisconsin, Michigan State)
ACC: One (North Carolina)
SEC: One (Tennessee)
A-10: One (Xavier)
C-USA: One (Memphis)
Sun Belt: One (Western Kentucky)

So again, if the favorites win Sunday then the Sun Belt will have as many Sweet 16 participants as the ACC and SEC.

That just sounds funny, doesn't it?

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- So I'm sitting in the hotel watching the NCAA tournament, and I just  realized something wild. Do you understand that if Texas A&M somehow beats UCLA later tonight it will ensure that one of the following teams will be in the Final Four.

• Texas A&M
• West Virginia
• Xavier
• Western Kentucky
• San Diego

Nothing against those programs.

But how many of you have a bracket with one of those schools in the Final Four?

Furthermore, how many of you have a bracket with two of those schools in the Elite Eight?

The number can't be high. So if you want an unconventional Final Four participant you should be rooting for Texas A&M. And if UCLA gets past the Aggies, well, this sure is setting up nicely for the Bruins, isn't it?

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Last year you could call it a fluke.

That's what I called it, at least.

But Duke's loss to West Virginia on Saturday means the Blue Devils will now miss the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season, this after they had made the Sweet 16 in nine consecutive seasons before losing to VCU in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. So yeah, the mighty have fallen on hard times relative to their usual type of times, and the only obvious explanation is that Mike Krzyzewski has made multiple bad recruiting decisions that have left him with a roster full of nice guys, only some of whom are physical and/or athletic enough to lead an elite program.

And don't tell me about all the McDonald's All-Americans.

That's a splendid thing to put in a media guide. But it is accepted fact that many players are named McDonald's Al-Americans because they are being recruited by Duke, meaning Duke doesn't sign McDonald's All-Americans as much as it manufactures them.

To this point, I'll ask this question: How many future NBA players were on this Duke roster?

Answer: A couple, probably.

Kyle Singler will play many years in the NBA, and I'm assuming Gerald Henderson will, too. But there weren't any serious prospects beyond those two, which is fine for most programs but less-than-fine for a program that has long been considered the best of the best. I mean, scrappy play and hustle and slapping the floor is great and all. But it takes pros to hang banners, and Duke is now mostly devoid of pros relative to the North Carolinas and UCLAs of the world.

And it's not getting fixed by next season.

The Blue Devils are losing DeMarcus Nelson and replacing him with Elliot Williams, a McDonald's All-American shooting guard from Memphis. But when Duke missed on prep standout Greg Monroe it ensured the Blue Devils will play another season without a notable post presence, and so it's hard to imagine Krzyzewski won't again have the same issues with his team.

Which is not to say Duke will be bad.

Let me be clear about that.

The Blue Devils should return four starters from a 28-win team, and that'll put them in the preseason Top 10. But the guess here is that they'll still be a piece away from having the personnel to hang another banner. And though that's OK for most programs it's just not what we've traditionally expected from Duke, which will now watch the second weekend of the NCAA tournament on television. Again.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Duke made two of its first three 3-point attempts, which is when I made the post below. Since then, the Blue Devils have missed eight consecutive shots from behind the arc, which is why they are now trailing with less than 14 minutes remaining.

Missing like that is not the way to advance.

And if this doesn't change the Blue Devils will miss the Sweet 16 for the second straight year.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala -- Duke is hitting its 3-point attempts early against West Virginia, and that's the biggest difference between the Blue Devils that nearly won the ACC regular-season title and the Blue Devils that nearly lost to Belmont in the first round of the NCAA tournament. I realize that sounds simple, but it's arguable no elite team relies on its ability to make jumpers to be successful more than Duke.

Why?

Because contrary to what a roster full of McDonald's All-Americans might suggest, Duke is not the type of team that overwhelms opponents with talent and athleticism the way a North Carolina or Kansas or Memphis does. For Duke to be great it needs to make jumpers and really defend, and anything short of that could have the Blue Devils struggling with anybody.

And by anybody, I mean Belmont.