Blog Entry

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

Posted on: December 12, 2009 8:01 pm
Edited on: December 12, 2009 8:09 pm

It was a year ago this weekend that Georgetown beat Memphis on national television, moved to 7-1 and seemed headed toward a possible top four finish in the Big East. The Hoyas subsequently recorded wins over Mt. Saint Mary's, Florida International, and Connecticut. They spent part of January with a 10-1 record and No. 9 national ranking.

In other words, everything was going well.

But then it all crumbled.

And that's why John Thompson III won't allow himself to get too excited about what's happening now, because what's happening now is basically the same thing that happened last season, and the Hoyas finished last season in the NIT. They went from 10-1 to 16-15 in a little more than two months, meaning they were 6-14 in their final 20 games, this after starting 10-1 with wins over three eventual NCAA tournament teams (Maryland, Memphis and UConn).

Fast-forward to this season, and Georgetown is 8-0, No. 15 in the AP poll and set to advance when the rankings update. There's no question about that. The only question is whether these Hoyas have staying power. And though I suspect they do -- especially after Saturday's impressive 74-66 victory over Washington -- some doubt will probably linger well into the Big East schedule just because of what happened last season.

My advice?

Let's see where the Hoyas are after their Jan. 17 game at Villanova.

That'll be their sixth Big East game and first road test against a Top 25 opponent.

If they leave Philly with a 5-1 Big East record, they should be considered a threat to win the league. A 4-2 start in the Big East would likely mean Georgetown is a legitimate Top 25 team, but probably not a Big East contender. And 3-3 or worse would have people wondering whether a repeat of last season was unfolding before their eyes.

Honestly, I think Georgetown is closer to a contender than a pretender.

But until the Hoyas prove it through a third of the Big East schedule, it's probably fair to wonder.
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Georgetown

Since: Feb 1, 2007
Posted on: December 13, 2009 1:37 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

Hey, this is not complicated at all.
Last year Georgetown got out muscled, (should I say punk'd), in several games.
Summers and Sapp did not carry the team like most thought they would.
They are now playing tough basketball.  Tough defense, (probably top 5 in country, defensive scoring).
A seemingly more aggressive Monroe, and much much more confident shooting.

Georgetown won't repeat the three consecutive loss scenario of last season at any point this year.

Not complicated, GO HOYAS !!!

Since: Sep 4, 2006
Posted on: December 13, 2009 10:12 am

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

"If they leave Philly with a 5-1 Big East record, they should be considered a threat to win the league. A 4-2 start in the Big East would likely mean Georgetown is a legitimate Top 25 team, but probably not a Big East contender. And 3-3 or worse would have people wondering whether a repeat of last season was unfolding before their eyes."

What if they're 6-0? Cool

Since: Oct 18, 2009
Posted on: December 13, 2009 1:16 am

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

While it is a little early to say whether or not Georgetown is for real, I do see some very notable differences in their team as well as teams throughout the Big East which I think will help them avoid another collapse like they had at the end of last year. First we'll start with the Hoyas themselves. The losses of Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers were basically addition by subtraction. Both played very key roles in getting the Georgetown basketball program back to their first Final Four since 1985 during the 2006-2007 season, but Sapp couldn't hit a shot last season if his life depended on it while Summers had the habit to disappear completely when the team needed him most. Another guy who was a waste of space on the roster was Omar Wattad. He didn't bring anything of value to the floor except for the one in 10 game or so great shooting performance. Aside from that, all he did was take up space by constantly getting beat defensively and being of no help in regards to rebounding. The other thing I see is the obvious maturity from the young guys who were only freshmen/sophomores a season ago.

Greg Monroe is much more willing to take a big shot and take control of a game when necessary. See his 24 point, 15 rebound effort against Butler earlier this week as well as the game winning shot against Temple in the second game of the season. While Chris Wright was technically a sophomore last season, he was still really a freshman. Remember, he had to miss most of his freshman season due to injury. He played in one game too many, otherwise he would have been medically redshirted and would be a sophomore this season. So last year was really his first full season through a major grind which is known as the Big East schedule. With Sapp departing, that has opened up a lot of minutes for Jason Clark and he looks like a star in the making. He's got great athleticism, creates havoc defensively with his long arms and can really shoot the ball. So far, Austin Freeman looks like he has greatly improved his outside shot, which was a liability a season ago. The most improved player on the team though is Julian Vaughn. God, it was frustrating for me to watch him a season ago. So far though, he looks like he's made huge strides on both ends of the floor. He's making shots, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, etc. The light seems to have clicked on for him. I also really like what Hollis Thompson brings to the team. This kid is not yet at the level I expect him to be at, but he looks like a do everything sort of player. Reminds me a little of Jeff Green in that regard. If Thompson comes close to being that good, I'll be extremely pleased.

Than you have guys like Vee Sanford and Jerrelle Benimon who don't get a lot of playing time, but can certainly give the team quality minutes off the bench when needed. Benimon could be a Jerome Williams type of player once his game fully develops. I love his intensity and never give up attitude on the floor. My only slight disappointment thus far has been with Henry Sims. I expected him to be a bit further along in his development under John Thompson III given what Thompson did with Roy Hibbert, who had his problems as a freshman before turning into quite a player. However, I'm not going to give up on that kid. I expect JTIII to develop him into a disruptive player on defense in the paint and at the very least, be a serviceable player on the offensive end of the court. The team will need that next season assuming Monroe leaves for the NBA, which at this point seems like is going to happen. That said, everyone else should be back (unless Freeman really blows up) and Nate Lubick and Markel Starks will be joining next season. Lubick has a skill set which is perfect for the Georgetown system and I like what I hear about Starks. Seems like a good guy to take over the starting point guard duties after Chris Wright departs. Maybe Roscoe Smith will also be joining, though I've heard somewhere that UConn is in the lead for his services. Hard to know for sure with recruiting these days until these kids officially sign, so who knows?

Also helping this Georgetown team is the Big East not looking quite as strong as it was a season ago. Villanova and West Virginia were expected to be very good and they are. Syracuse has been better than I think most expected thus far thanks in large part to Wesley Johnson, the transfer from Iowa State. That kid is amazing! UConn doesn't seem quite as strong thus far without Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet up front. They also seem to be missing A.J. Price a little as their three point shooting has been off early on. Louisville is having issues without Earl Clark and Terrence Williams around. Same with Pittsburgh after they lost DaJuan Blair, Lavance Fields, Sam Young and a few others. Marquette also looks a little down without Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews around. Notre Dame doesn't seem much different than a season ago so far. Luke Harangody is great, but they've had some bad losses early on. You could say Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame being down (at least early on) is being somewhat offset with the Orange being better than expected and the major improvements shown from Cincinnati, St. John's and Seton Hall. However, I still have to say the Big East was stronger a season ago. Due to this and the Georgetown team seeming to mature from what happened a season ago, I don't see a collapse similar to last year happening to them this season. Could I be wrong? Sure, it wouldn't be the first time and it wouldn't be the last time. That said, I expect to see this Hoya team back in the NCAA Tournament after a one year absence.

Since: Sep 18, 2008
Posted on: December 13, 2009 12:58 am

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

Georgetown looks good. Not too many teams are going to win in Villanova's gym, unless it's Villanova. But I get the point. And, by the way, I hate to break it to Big-East-circa-2008-09 fans, but this year's Big East is WAY better--Louisville notwithstanding. Syracuse is a SERIOUS national title contender.

Since: Jan 25, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2009 11:05 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?


man, that is some interesting stuff! have you used that to successfully ween a killer ncaa bracket during march madness?

just watching g town last year you new they were better than their record, but now there is an equation to support it. Thanks bro!

Since: Sep 4, 2006
Posted on: December 12, 2009 10:59 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

I do not care what says. To quote Bill Parcells "You are what your record says you are". I'm a Hoyas fan, I watched them lose a lot of close games last year, not because of luck. Because they were outplayed at the end of almost everyone of those games. There is one reason they will be a contender this year, not only in the Big East, but into late March: Greg Monroe. He is one of the top 5 players in the country. In college hoops, if you have an elite big; you will be a contender. The problem with the Hoyas is that they only go 6 deep. It does not take ridiculous cybermetrics to figure this team out.

Since: May 29, 2008
Posted on: December 12, 2009 10:55 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

This season, Georgetown is "NOT" capable of losing important games, we just won 8...every game is important to the Hoyas, every step of the way will be a great learning experience for the Hoyas.  Enjoy the moment!  WE ARE GEORGETOWN!!!  GLIDEHOYAS.BLOGSPOT.COM BABYYYYY!

Since: Dec 12, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2009 10:41 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse? It rates college basketball teams on  per-possession basis. It is the best barometer for how good teams are, not wins and losses. Based on the information compiled there, you can predict a team's record based on their per-possession performance, adjusted for opponent strength. Simply put- G'Town was a lot better than their record showed last year, due to luck/the vagaries of winning close games (which studies have shown are inherently, almost always based on just luck), and so their record this year shouldn't be a surprise. If you go look at past years' unluckiest teams, you'll often find teams that are 'surprise' teams the next year. G'Town fits the mold (despite having lost Dajuan Summers)

Since: Feb 28, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2009 9:57 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

If G'town continues to play like this, they will have a very good shot at winning the Big East. But as we saw last season, They are very capable of loosing important games. After they have six Big East games under their belt, and still have a good record, I'll breath easy again.

Since: Jan 25, 2009
Posted on: December 12, 2009 9:56 pm

Are Hoyas for real or set for a repeat collapse?

youngmon..I KID, I KID!  welcome! that is how you crash the boards!

now...what does all that mean??

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