Dear Gary (on why Butler can get a great seed)

Here's Tuesday's Dear Gary ...

Dear Gary: I love Butler, and I root for them to do well. However, there is no freaking way they get a 3 seed (like you projected ). For them to get a 3 seed they would have to have only 1 loss. They will lose more than that and when they do the selection committee will kill them.

-- MasterTim

You're thinking of Butler in the traditional sense and not this Butler with this schedule.

This Butler has games against Ohio State, Georgetown, Xavier, Northwestern, Minnesota, plus possible games in Anaheim against UCLA and West Virginia, plus a BracketBuster game to be determined. With that schedule (and the necessary wins plus an expected waltz through the Horizon), Butler can absolutely get a top three seed.

Consider: The Horizon has been rated better than C-USA three of the past four years, and Memphis (of C-USA) has still earned two No. 1 seeds and two No. 2 seeds in that span. How? Non-league success, that's how. And Butler is in a position to do something similar if it wins the right games and doesn't lose the wrong ones.

Will it happen?

Who knows?

But can it happen?

Yes, absolutely.

You make an accurate point about the scheduling, Gary, except that, with the exceptions of West Virginia and Xavier, there aren't any surefire NCAA teams on that list. Georgetown and Ohio State have unproven talent (gobs of it), and UCLA is rebuilding.

Still, I do find it amusing that you cite Memphis. Absolutely Butler could do what Memphis did, but Butler doesn't have the name recognition with the pollsters (hooray Bill Cole!) that Memphis does, and - to be honest - Butler doesn't have anywhere near the raw talent that those Memphis teams had. Butler has a nice group of players, with some certain quality players and potential pro's in there, that exceeds the sum of its parts. Memphis had lottery picks. Ultimately, that's the difference between Butler and Memphis of yesteryear - one had Derrick Rose, one has Gordon Heyward.

With that being said, I sincerely hope that Butler does go crazy and prove me wrong. But, as I see it, a two-loss Butler, even with that schedule, still looks like 3 or a 4 seed. Is it right? Heck no. But that's just the way it is.

Dear Gary (on why Butler can get a great seed)

If Butler comes out of that schedule with 2 losses, they will deserve a #2 seed similar to Memphis.

In your opinion, Memphis may have had the better talent, but I'm pretty sure that talent isn't the first 3 things that the selection committee thinks of when seeding.

The committee considers Wins/Loss Record, RPI, and Strength of Schedule that determine a team's seed.

Dear Gary (on why Butler can get a great seed)

How quickly people forget about the '06-'07 S16 team that pulled a five seed. Gary is spot-on; the key here has to be non-league success.

Back in '06 when Butler won the preseason NIT they picked up victories over Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Purdue; all teams that made the tournament. Winning each of those games was a huge boost for the OOC resume. Butler also five losses that could have been considered bad losses; at Indiana State, FOUR losses in conference (14-4 overall including the tournament), then the loss in the Bracketbuster to an eventual Sweet 16 team in Southern Illinois. In the end, though, Butler went 5-1 against teams with at-large resumes, which led to getting the 5 seed.

Sure-fire NCAA tournament teams on the schedule this year:

Minnesota
Georgetown
Ohio State
Xavier

Plus potential matchups with UCLA, West Virginia, or Clemson, a team with NCAA hopes in Northwestern, and a Brackbuster matchup (Siena, perhaps?) that puts another probable tournament-quality team on the schedule.

If this team can come close to duplicating the success OOC that '06-'07 team did while improving to 16-2 in conference and winning the tournment, a 3 seed is definitely possible. I'm still in the camp that thinks they'll stubmle against some of these tough OOC teams and will take a couple "bad" losses in conference on the way to a 4-5 seed, but I don't think a 3 seed is totally outlandish.

kurrem Reputation: 98 Level: Superstar Since: Sep 25, 2006	Posted on: November 10, 2009 5:30 pm Score: 146 Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Dear Gary (on why Butler can get a great seed) You make an accurate point about the scheduling, Gary, except that, with the exceptions of West Virginia and Xavier, there aren't any surefire NCAA teams on that list. Georgetown and Ohio State have unproven talent (gobs of it), and UCLA is rebuilding. Still, I do find it amusing that you cite Memphis. Absolutely Butler could do what Memphis did, but Butler doesn't have the name recognition with the pollsters (hooray Bill Cole!) that Memphis does, and - to be honest - Butler doesn't have anywhere near the raw talent that those Memphis teams had. Butler has a nice group of players, with some certain quality players and potential pro's in there, that exceeds the sum of its parts. Memphis had lottery picks. Ultimately, that's the difference between Butler and Memphis of yesteryear - one had Derrick Rose, one has Gordon Heyward. With that being said, I sincerely hope that Butler does go crazy and prove me wrong. But, as I see it, a two-loss Butler, even with that schedule, still looks like 3 or a 4 seed. Is it right? Heck no. But that's just the way it is. [ Reply to Comment ]
martymar Reputation: 87 Level: All-Star Since: Mar 9, 2008	Posted on: November 10, 2009 6:45 pm Score: 88 Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Dear Gary (on why Butler can get a great seed) If Butler comes out of that schedule with 2 losses, they will deserve a #2 seed similar to Memphis. In your opinion, Memphis may have had the better talent, but I'm pretty sure that talent isn't the first 3 things that the selection committee thinks of when seeding. The committee considers Wins/Loss Record, RPI, and Strength of Schedule that determine a team's seed. [ Reply to Comment ]
Coogles1 Reputation: 90 Level: All-Star Since: Jun 18, 2009	Posted on: November 11, 2009 12:02 am Score: 121 Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Log-in to rate: Dear Gary (on why Butler can get a great seed) How quickly people forget about the '06-'07 S16 team that pulled a five seed. Gary is spot-on; the key here has to be non-league success. Back in '06 when Butler won the preseason NIT they picked up victories over Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Purdue; all teams that made the tournament. Winning each of those games was a huge boost for the OOC resume. Butler also five losses that could have been considered bad losses; at Indiana State, FOUR losses in conference (14-4 overall including the tournament), then the loss in the Bracketbuster to an eventual Sweet 16 team in Southern Illinois. In the end, though, Butler went 5-1 against teams with at-large resumes, which led to getting the 5 seed. Sure-fire NCAA tournament teams on the schedule this year: Minnesota Georgetown Ohio State Xavier Plus potential matchups with UCLA, West Virginia, or Clemson, a team with NCAA hopes in Northwestern, and a Brackbuster matchup (Siena, perhaps?) that puts another probable tournament-quality team on the schedule. If this team can come close to duplicating the success OOC that '06-'07 team did while improving to 16-2 in conference and winning the tournment, a 3 seed is definitely possible. I'm still in the camp that thinks they'll stubmle against some of these tough OOC teams and will take a couple "bad" losses in conference on the way to a 4-5 seed, but I don't think a 3 seed is totally outlandish. [ Reply to Comment ]

Gary Parrish

Parrish: The Thoughts