Pick a good school relative to its league, stupid

I laugh when recruits spend months talking about how they want to win and play in the NCAA tournament before ultimately committing to a bottom-tier program in a BCS-affiliated league. Brilliant! I always want to tell them that the secret to winning and playing in the NCAA tournament isn't picking a major conference program regardless of the program, it's making sure you select a program that's good-or-great relative to its league, regardless of the league.

I was reminded of this while looking at some facts about Western Kentucky.

Forget Memphis, Xavier and Gonzaga, i.e, the three programs widely recognized as the best of the non-BCS.

I'm not even talking about them.

Just look at freaking Western Kentucky.

Because the Hilltoppers are the class of the Sun Belt -- picked to win it again this year, by the way -- they've been to five NCAA tournaments (2001, 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2009) this decade. Now look at the list of schools from power conferences that cannot match five NCAA tournament appearances this decade:

Clemson
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Northwestern
Penn State
Auburn
Georgia
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Baylor
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas State
Nebraska
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
DePaul
Georgetown
Providence
Rutgers
St. John's
Seton Hall
South Florida
West Virginia

So the lesson is clear: The key to playing in the NCAA tournament is picking a program that is dominant relative to its league. If that's North Carolina in the ACC, great. If it's Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt, that's fine, too. But what you don't want to do is sign with a perennial loser in a major conference just because it's in a major conference, because in that case you're probably going to spend four years watching the NCAA tournament on CBS. And though I love CBS, it's much more fun to participate in March Madness than it is to watch March Madness, I'm assuming.

spinny66 Reputation: 81 Level: All-Star Since: Sep 18, 2008	Posted on: November 4, 2009 2:19 am Score: 97 Pick a good school relative to its league, stupid to districtfan: That's a good point. And the America East is a good example. So is Siena. This will be the third in a terrific 3-year run for these guys, but I'm guessing it's over after this year. Bucknell had a similar success story a few years ago then they vanished. Same for Pacific. But Western is starting to look like THE Sun Belt power year in, year out. Of course, I'm a little biased. [ Reply to Comment ]
Chickfighter Reputation: 98 Level: Superstar Since: Sep 15, 2008	Posted on: November 3, 2009 10:42 pm Score: 125 Pick a school thats good for you, hotshot So are saying is that it is better to be a big fish in a little pond than an average fish in the ocean? There may be some truth to that in specific cases where one team dominates a conference, but that sand is ever-shifting and I think it is obvious there needs to be more to the decision than just that. Does the kid's game fit with the style of play a particular coach teaches? Which way is the program headed lately? Does the school offer a degree in something the kid wants to study? Do they graduate players? Most of these kids want to play in a BCS conference because they want a chance to compete night in night out against the very best. You do that by going to a team in the ACC or the Big East or Big Ten etc that fits your style of play... not in the Sun Belt. If you do a good enough job of proving yourself in that environment then winning and getting to the NCAA tournament will take care of itself. About half of the teams from the conferences I mentioned will make it to the dance. In the Sun Belt you likely have one chance so you better win that conference tournament. [ Reply to Comment ]
districtfan Reputation: 86 Level: All-Star Since: Sep 4, 2006	Posted on: November 3, 2009 6:22 pm Score: 119 Pick a good school relative to its league, stupid Your premise is flawed on several levels 1) it assumes that's what players really care about. ( a lot care more about themself than winning, and alot care mroe aobut a brand name than winning) 2) It assumes it's easy to know what the best team in these smaller leagues are. Western Kentucky is a great program and people who know basketball know that. They're a contender in their league year after year. That's easy. But knowing who's going to be the best team in say the American East isn't easy to do 2yrs out when players are making this decision. [ Reply to Comment ]
vol u me Reputation: 94 Level: All-Star Since: Feb 6, 2008	Posted on: November 3, 2009 5:26 pm Score: 100 Pick a good school relative to its league, stupid Great insight. How long did it take you to figure this out? Too bad not every kid can sign with a NCAA tourney regular. Some kids also have enough confidence in themselves to believe they can actually help get the program they just signed with over the hump. [ Reply to Comment ]

to districtfan:

That's a good point. And the America East is a good example. So is Siena. This will be the third in a terrific 3-year run for these guys, but I'm guessing it's over after this year. Bucknell had a similar success story a few years ago then they vanished. Same for Pacific. But Western is starting to look like THE Sun Belt power year in, year out. Of course, I'm a little biased.

Pick a school thats good for you, hotshot

So are saying is that it is better to be a big fish in a little pond than an average fish in the ocean? There may be some truth to that in specific cases where one team dominates a conference, but that sand is ever-shifting and I think it is obvious there needs to be more to the decision than just that. Does the kid's game fit with the style of play a particular coach teaches? Which way is the program headed lately? Does the school offer a degree in something the kid wants to study? Do they graduate players?

Most of these kids want to play in a BCS conference because they want a chance to compete night in night out against the very best. You do that by going to a team in the ACC or the Big East or Big Ten etc that fits your style of play... not in the Sun Belt. If you do a good enough job of proving yourself in that environment then winning and getting to the NCAA tournament will take care of itself. About half of the teams from the conferences I mentioned will make it to the dance. In the Sun Belt you likely have one chance so you better win that conference tournament.

Pick a good school relative to its league, stupid

Your premise is flawed on several levels
1) it assumes that's what players really care about. ( a lot care more about themself than winning, and alot care mroe aobut a brand name than winning)
2) It assumes it's easy to know what the best team in these smaller leagues are.

Western Kentucky is a great program and people who know basketball know that. They're a contender in their league year after year. That's easy. But knowing who's going to be the best team in say the American East isn't easy to do 2yrs out when players are making this decision.

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